{"id":62768,"date":"2025-01-06T08:25:32","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T23:25:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62768"},"modified":"2025-01-06T08:25:33","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T23:25:33","slug":"01-06-%ed%95%98%ec%9d%b4%eb%b6%88%ec%8a%a4-%ed%8e%80%eb%93%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%9e%b5-%ed%8f%ac%ed%8a%b8%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%ec%98%a4-%ec%97%85%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%8a%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62768","title":{"rendered":"[01.06] \ud558\uc774\ubd88\uc2a4 \ud380\ub4dc \uc804\ub7b5 : \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>(\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 \ub0b4 \uae00\uc790\uac00 \uc798 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \uc6f9\ube0c\ub77c\uc6b0\uc800, \ud734\ub300\ud3f0 \ud654\uba74\uc744 \u2018\uac00\ub85c\ud654\uba74\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc2dc\uac70\ub098, \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uba74 \ud655\ub300\ud574\uc11c \ubcf4\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\uc804\uc77c\uc790 \ud380\ub4dc\uc804\ub7b5(<a href=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62685\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62685<\/a>)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9d0\uc500\ub4dc\ub9b0\ub300\ub85c, STX\uc5d4\uc9c4(077970)\uc744 \uc2e0\uaddc \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3b8\uc785\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong> \uc804\uc77c \uad6d\ub0b4\uc99d\uc2dc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc870\uc120, \uc804\ub825 \uc778\ud504\ub77c, \ub85c\ubd07 \ub4f1 \ucd5c\uadfc \uac15\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \uc139\ud130\/\uc885\ubaa9\ub4e4\uc774 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \uc870\uc120\uae30\uc790\uc7ac \uc139\ud130\uc5d0 \ud3b8\uc785\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\ub294 STX\uc5d4\uc9c4\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00\ub3c4 -4%\ub300 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc21c\ud658\ub9e4\uc758 \uc218\uae09\uc801 \uc694\uc778\uc5d0 \uc758\ud55c \ub2e8\uae30 \uc870\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \ud070 \uc6b0\ub824 \uc5c6\uc774 \ubd84\ud560 \ub9e4\uc218 \ub300\uc751\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc678\uad6d\uc778\/\uae30\uad00 \uc21c\ub9e4\uc218 \uc0c1\uc704 \uc885\ubaa9\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc8fc\ub4e4\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ud3ec\ucc29\ub418\ub354\ub2c8, \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc139\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc8fc\uac00 \ubc18\ub4f1\uc774 \ub098\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7f0\ub370, \uc800\ud76c\ub294 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc5c5\ud669 \ud130\ub2dd \uc2dc\uc810\uc774 \uc544\uc9c1 \uba85\ud655\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0c1\ud669\uc774\uba70, \uad6d\ub0b4\ub97c \ub300\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc778 \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\u00b7SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uae30\uac04\uc870\uc815\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc120\uc9c0(2024\ub144 7\uc6d4~) \uc774\uc81c 6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc815\ub3c4\ubc16\uc5d0 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc139\ud130 \uc800\uc810 \ub9e4\uc218\ub97c \ub9d0\ud558\uae30\uc5d4 \uc870\uae08 \uc774\ub974\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ub2e4\ub9cc, AI \ud544\uc218 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc778 \uace0\ub300\uc5ed\ud3ed\uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac(HBM)\ub97c \uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544(NVDA)\uc5d0 \uacf5\uae09\ud558\ub294 SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uc800\uc810 -42%\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucc0d\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uadf8\ub798\ub3c4 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc \uba54\ubaa8\ub9ac\ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ub300\uc7a5\uc778 \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\uac00 \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 -40%\uc758 \uc8fc\uac00 \ub099\ud3ed\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud558\uba70 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc800\uc810 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\uc5b4\uc654\ub358 PBR 1.0\ubc30\ub97c \ud558\ud68c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \uac00\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uce21\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \uc870\uc815\uc774 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0\ub3c4 \ub9d0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uadfc\uac70\uc774\uae34 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ub610\ud55c, \uc774\ubc88 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc5c5\uc2f8\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc774\ub048 \uac74 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c AI\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc694\uc778\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, AI \ud544\uc218 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc778 HBM\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\uac00 \uc2e4\uc801 \ubc1c\ud45c \ucee8\ud37c\ub7f0\uc2a4\ucf5c\uc5d0\uc11c 2025\ub144 \ubb3c\ub7c9\ub3c4 \uc644\ud310\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ud588\uc744 \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uac15\ub825\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ube45\ud14c\ud06c\uc758 2025\ub144 \uc608\uc0c1 CAPEX\ub294 2,973\uc5b5$\ub85c, 2024\ub144 \uc608\uc0c1 CAPEX 2,420\uc5b5$\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d 23% \uc99d\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ub9cc\uc758 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ub9ac TSMC\ub294 AI \uac00\uc18d\uae30\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c CoWos CAPA \ud560\ub2f9\ub7c9\uc744 2025\ub144 75K\/\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294\ub370, 2024\ub144\uc758 35K\/\uc6d4\uc5d0\uc11c 2\ubc30 \uc774\uc0c1 \uc99d\uac00\ud55c \uc218\uce58\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\ub9d0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub9c8\uc774\ud06c\ub85c\uc18c\ud504\ud2b8(MSFT)\uac00 \uc62c\ud574 AI \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc13c\ud130 \ud22c\uc790\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58(621\uc5b5$)\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 800\uc5b5$\ub97c \ud22c\uc790\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ub530\ub77c\uc11c <strong>\uc800\ud76c\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uac15\ub825\ud55c AI \uc218\uc694\uc758 \ub099\uc218\ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub204\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294(HBM, ASIC) \uae30\uc5c5 \uc704\uc8fc\ub85c \ud22c\uc790 \ub300\uc0c1\uc744 \uc120\ubcc4\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/strong> \uc0bc\uc131\uc804\uc790\uc640 SK\ud558\uc774\ub2c9\uc2a4\ub294 \ub808\uac70\uc2dc \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4\uc758 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 50%\ub97c \ub118\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, AI \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ub204\ub9ac\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2e4\uc801\uacfc \uc8fc\uac00\uac00 \ubcf8\uaca9 \ud134\uc5b4\ub77c\uc6b4\ub4dc\ud558\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \ub354 \ud544\uc694\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uadf8\ub798\uc11c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc911\u00b7\uc18c\ud615 \ubc38\ub958\uccb4\uc778\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uba3c\uc800 <strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color\">TSMC\uc758 \ub514\uc790\uc778\ud558\uc6b0\uc2a4\uc778 \uc5d0\uc774\uc9c1\ub79c\ub4dc(445090)\ub97c \ud3b8\uc785\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <\/mark><\/strong>\ucd5c\uadfc <strong>\ubbf8\uad6d \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uae30\uc5c5 \ube0c\ub85c\ub4dc\ucef4(AVGO)\uc774 AI\ubc1c(\u767c) \uc8fc\ubb38\ud615 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4(ASIC) \uc218\uc694 \ud638\uc870\ub85c \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc2e4\uc801\uacfc \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud588\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544(NVDA)\ub3c4 ASIC \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc9c4\ucd9c\uc744 \uc120\uc5b8\ud558\uba70 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c AI \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc804\uc7a5\ud130\uac00 HBM\uc5d0\uc11c ASIC\uae4c\uc9c0 \ud655\ub300\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984<\/strong>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. <strong>\uc5d4\ube44\ub514\uc544\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ud30c\ud2b8\ub108\uc778 TSMC\ub3c4 \uc774\uc5d0 \ubd84\uc8fc\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc720\uc77c\uc758 TSMC \ud611\ub825\uc0ac\uc778 \uc5d0\uc774\uc9c1\ub79c\ub4dc\uac00 \ubd80\uac01\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub300<\/strong>\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. <strong>\uc790\uc138\ud55c \ud22c\uc790\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub294 \uc624\ub298\uc790 \ud22c\ubfd4(1++) \ucd94\ucc9c\uc8fc \ub0b4\uc6a9(<a href=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62806\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62806<\/a><\/strong>)<strong>\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc8fc\uc138\uc694.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\uc544\ub798\ub294&nbsp;<strong>\uc804\uc77c \uc885\uac00 \uae30\uc900 \ud558\uc774\ubd88\uc2a4 \ud380\ub4dc \ud604\ud669<\/strong>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1180\" height=\"1533\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-19-18.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62769\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-19-18.png 1180w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-19-18-231x300.png 231w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-19-18-788x1024.png 788w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-19-18-768x998.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1180px) 100vw, 1180px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1180\" height=\"1376\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-35.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62770\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-35.png 1180w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-35-257x300.png 257w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-35-878x1024.png 878w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-35-768x896.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1180px) 100vw, 1180px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1180\" height=\"1213\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-55.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62771\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-55.png 1180w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-55-292x300.png 292w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-55-996x1024.png 996w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-17-55-768x789.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1180px) 100vw, 1180px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1180\" height=\"1522\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-18-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62772\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-18-33.png 1180w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-18-33-233x300.png 233w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-18-33-794x1024.png 794w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-05_16-18-33-768x991.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1180px) 100vw, 1180px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"947\" height=\"238\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-02_21-37-57.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62690\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-02_21-37-57.png 947w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-02_21-37-57-300x75.png 300w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image_2025-01-02_21-37-57-768x193.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 947px) 100vw, 947px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"812\" height=\"1052\" src=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image_2024-12-29_14-58-26.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-62549\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image_2024-12-29_14-58-26.png 812w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image_2024-12-29_14-58-26-232x300.png 232w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image_2024-12-29_14-58-26-790x1024.png 790w, https:\/\/hibulls.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/image_2024-12-29_14-58-26-768x995.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 812px) 100vw, 812px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0 \ub0b4 \uae00\uc790\uac00 \uc798 \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \uc6f9\ube0c\ub77c\uc6b0\uc800, \ud734\ub300\ud3f0 \ud654\uba74\uc744 \u2018\uac00\ub85c\ud654\uba74\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc2dc\uac70\ub098, \uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uba74 \ud655\ub300\ud574\uc11c \ubcf4\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.) \uc804\uc77c\uc790 \ud380\ub4dc\uc804\ub7b5(https:\/\/hibulls.com\/?p=62685)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9d0\uc500\ub4dc\ub9b0\ub300\ub85c, 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